Now that we’ve all caught Biden fever, our next question is: What will happen to Joe Biden’s Senate seat?
Well, a number of things could happen. Biden is up for re-election this year, and if he wanted to, Delaware election law allows him to remain on the November ballot. In that case, if the Obama-Biden ticket wins in November, Biden can take the Senate oath and then resign, allowing Democratic Gov. Ruth Ann Minner, in her last days in office (her term expires on January 20, 2009 — the same day as the presidential inauguration), to appoint a replacement who would serve until 2010. However, it’s not obvious to me that we want to endure the Democratic Party’s vice-presidential nominee appearing to be “hedging his bets” once again.
If Biden pulls his name from the ballot, the party would (I assume) be able to name a replacement candidate. The conventional wisdom suggests that the go-to guy to fill this slot is none other than Beau Biden, Joe’s son and Attorney General of Delaware. The younger Biden would be a strong bet to hold this seat.
Could the GOP possibly make a race of this? It’s difficult to make a case in their favor here, even if the elder Biden is off the ballot. Despite not being an overwhelmingly blue state in the most recent presidential elections (Kerry won the state by 7 points in 2004, and Gore by 13), the GOP bench in Delaware is abysmally weak. It’s so bad, in fact, that the state GOP is not even seriously contesting the open seat gubernatorial election this year.
The only conceivable way that the GOP could make a real race of this would be if they nominated the state’s at-large Rep. Mike Castle, a popular former Governor who has bucked the state’s blue trend to hold on to his House seat with ease. However, Castle is 69 years old, and suffered some minor strokes in the fall of 2006. Is he really up for six years in the Senate at this point? Castle has expressed reluctance to take on a Senate bid, but has not conclusively ruled one out, to the best of my knowledge. Still, this option seems like a long shot at best for the GOP.
The Delaware GOP does have a candidate on the ballot for this race already – conservative talking head Christine O’Donnell. With Delaware’s filing deadline having passed in July, she would have to agree to pull out of the race in order for the GOP to tap a stronger candidate – but the GOP’s recruiting prospects here do not look promising right now, especially when you consider the failed track record of NRSC Chair John Ensign this cycle.
This seat is very likely a safe hold, but we’ll have to see which path Joe Biden chooses first before we can paint a clearer picture.